This provocative notion
from Goethe, combined with an accident while cycling, led me to ask:
Does the nature of risk elude us more often than not, and if so, what are the consequences?
Does the nature of risk elude us more often than not, and if so, what are the consequences?
In conversation with friends, family and people met on the road, I have received mostly
unqualified support for my long distance bicycle tour. However I have also received varied dire warnings. A slight raising of the eyebrows, vague descriptions of
robbings, bombings, kidnappngs, attacks by wild animals, lunatic road users and
myriad other possibilities.
The Hypothesis
The human mind has
evolved in a way which does not intuitively deal with risk, and more
generally probability, in an accurate manner.